AP Business Case Study · Unit 2, Task 2

Crumbl: Can a Weekly Menu Keep Customers Coming Back?

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Unit 2 · Consumer Behavior

A real-company case study for Unit 2, Task 2 of AP Business with Personal Finance, written in the same format as the course's business cases. Read the case, answer each question on your own, then open the sample answers to check your thinking. Facts are current as of October 2026, and every source is listed at the bottom.

The Case

Unit & taskUnit 2, Task 2: Consumer Behavior
Topic2.2
Key peopleJason McGowan (Co-founder; CEO during Crumbl’s rapid growth; former director of product at Ancestry.com); Sawyer Hemsley (Co-founder and chief branding officer; helped design the pink box)
Case years2017–2026 · Evaluation case
Key questionHow did Crumbl use scarcity, social proof, and technology to influence customers’ buying decisions, and why might those tactics have lost power as the novelty wore off?
Business Canvas componentsCustomer, Product
Snapshot
  • Business: Crumbl, a franchised bakery chain known for large cookies sold from a weekly rotating menu
  • Industry: Restaurants and desserts (franchising)
  • Founded: 2017, Logan, Utah, by cousins Jason McGowan and Sawyer Hemsley
  • Headquarters: Lindon, Utah
  • Size: 1,101 locations at the end of 2025 (franchise disclosure document); 1,064 operating in October 2026, according to Restaurant Business
  • Ownership/Status: Privately held; backed by private equity (reported in 2025)

Two Cousins and a Cookie Test

In 2017, cousins Jason McGowan and Sawyer Hemsley opened the first Crumbl bakery in Logan, Utah. McGowan had worked as a director of product at Ancestry.com, and the cousins treated their recipe like an experiment. McGowan later told Franchise Times that they compared versions of their chocolate chip cookie by asking people at local gas stations which one they preferred, wasting thousands of dollars of dough along the way. Crumbl built its bakeries with open kitchens so customers could watch cookies being mixed and baked. A second store opened in Orem, Utah, in January 2018. That year, Hemsley and some college classmates designed a pink box that holds four cookies side by side, and Crumbl began selling franchises so other owners could open stores.

A Menu That Disappears

Crumbl’s signature idea was a menu that kept changing. In 2021, each store kept two staple flavors, chocolate chip and classic sugar, and swapped the other four every week, drawing from a library of more than 170 recipes. Flavors such as sweet cornbread with honey buttercream frosting rotated in and out of the lineup. The cookies were large, about six ounces each. By late 2025, Bloomberg Businessweek reported, Crumbl was revealing each new lineup online on Sunday evenings, and only one cookie, milk chocolate chip, stayed on the menu from week to week. Most cookies sold for about $5 each.

Lines, Likes, and an App

Crumbl grew up on social media. By 2021 it had about 1.3 million followers on Instagram and nearly 3 million on TikTok, and its Unbox the Pink Box videos drew tens of thousands of views. A Canadian content creator with about 100,000 followers told Bloomberg Businessweek that lines were often longest about two hours before closing, when stores started running out of cookies. Crumbl also ran collaborations with celebrities such as Olivia Rodrigo and the Jonas Brothers, and a partnership made its signature shade, Crumbl Pink, an official Pantone color.

Technology shaped how people bought, too. Crumbl built its own point-of-sale system and an app that handled orders for delivery, curbside pickup, catering, and shipping, and it gave franchise owners a data platform that tracked sales and how long orders took. As of October 2026, members of its Crumbl Rewards program earned points called Crumbs: 10 per dollar at the starting Bronze level, rising to 13 per dollar at the top Pink level. Reaching the Silver level unlocked perks such as a free single dessert on the member’s birthday and the chance to vote on flavors, which members could do only in the Crumbl app. Crumbs expired a year after they were earned, and they could be earned only on orders placed through Crumbl’s own app and website, not through services such as Uber Eats or DoorDash.

Growth Outpaces Demand

Franchise owners opened stores at a remarkable pace, including 84 in 2020 alone. Crumbl had more than 260 stores in 36 states in October 2021 and more than 600 stores in 47 states by January 2023; within about six years of opening its first store, it had more than 950 locations. But sales per store did not keep up (see Exhibit 1). Average yearly sales per location peaked at $1.84 million in 2022, then dropped to $1.16 million in 2023. Around that time, Crumbl refreshed its look and dropped the word “cookies” from its logo, and McGowan, then the CEO, said the company planned to slow its growth in the coming years. By fall 2026, Crumbl’s website described its menu as six classics plus new weekly flavors, and the lineup for the week of October 12 included a brownie as well as cookies made with brand-name treats such as TWIX and OREO.

Where Things Stand

In October 2026, the trade publication Restaurant Business reported that at least 57 Crumbl locations had closed so far that year while 20 had opened, and that at least 55 franchises were listed for sale. Citing an internal document, it said Crumbl’s August sales were 70% lower than two years earlier; KUTV, a Salt Lake City TV station that reported the findings, said it had not independently reviewed that document. Foot traffic was down 32% from a year earlier, according to the data firm Placer.ai. A four-cookie box started at $14.99. An economist interviewed by KUTV said that when families face higher prices for gas and groceries, they sometimes cut out luxuries, large or small, and he added that Crumbl’s rapid expansion after the pandemic could also be a factor. Crumbl did not respond to KUTV’s requests for comment. As of October 2026, Crumbl still had more than 1,000 locations, but it faced a hard question: what keeps customers coming back once a weekly surprise is no longer new?

Exhibit 1: Average yearly sales per Crumbl location, 2020–2025
YearAverage sales per location
2020$1.27 million
2021$1.69 million
2022$1.84 million
2023$1.16 million
2024$1.36 million
2025$1.14 million

Source: KUTV (Oct. 8, 2026), reporting figures published by Restaurant Business. Figures are sales before a store’s expenses are subtracted.

Reading Questions

These are the same for every case. They check that you caught the basics before you analyze.

1. Which business does this case feature, and what product or service does it provide?
The case features Crumbl, a franchised bakery chain founded in Logan, Utah, in 2017. It sells large cookies (about $5 each) and other desserts from a menu that changes every week, packed in its signature pink box. Customers can buy in stores or order through its app and website for pickup or delivery, and they can join the Crumbl Rewards program.
2. Who are the key people named in the case, and what roles do they play? Which other stakeholders — individuals or groups — have an interest in the business?
Jason McGowan is a co-founder who led the company as CEO during its rapid growth; he previously worked at Ancestry.com. Sawyer Hemsley is a co-founder and the chief branding officer who helped design the pink box. Other stakeholders include customers and Rewards members, franchise owners (some of whom have closed stores or put them up for sale), store employees, content creators and celebrity partners such as Olivia Rodrigo and the Jonas Brothers, delivery companies such as Uber Eats and DoorDash, and investors.
3. Identify an opportunity and/or a challenge the business faces in this case.
Opportunity: Crumbl has more than 1,000 locations, a well-known brand, and a rewards program and app that can bring customers back with perks and flavor voting. Challenge: the novelty of the weekly menu has faded. Average sales per location fell from $1.84 million in 2022 to $1.14 million in 2025, at least 57 locations closed in 2026, and foot traffic was down 32% from a year earlier.

Practice Questions

These apply the Unit 2 concepts from Task 2 to the case, in the style of AP free-response prompts.

1. Identify the principle of influence Crumbl used with its weekly rotating menu, and evaluate how effective this sales tactic has been, using evidence from the case.Topic 2.2 · LO 2.2.C
The weekly menu uses scarcity: because most flavors disappear at the end of the week and the lineup is revealed every Sunday evening, customers feel they must buy now or miss out. At first the tactic worked well. Customers lined up, stores sometimes ran out of cookies near closing time, and average sales per location rose from $1.27 million in 2020 to $1.84 million in 2022. The scarcity was also honest, since the flavors really did rotate, so it did not deceive customers. Over time, though, the tactic lost power: sales per location fell to $1.14 million by 2025, and by 2026 Crumbl described its menu as six classics plus new weekly flavors. Scarcity drives urgency only while the limited item still feels special, so it works best combined with dependable favorites customers can count on.
2. Describe two ways technology has affected customers’ purchasing patterns at Crumbl.Topic 2.2 · LO 2.2.B
First, social media changed when and why people bought. Crumbl revealed each week’s lineup online every Sunday evening and built millions of followers on Instagram and TikTok, so customers planned visits around the new flavors and saw other people’s posts before they bought. Second, Crumbl’s app changed how people bought: customers could order for pickup, delivery, catering, or shipping instead of standing in line. The Crumbl Rewards program inside the app also encourages repeat purchases, because members earn more Crumbs per dollar as they reach higher levels, can vote on flavors only in the app, and don’t earn Crumbs on Uber Eats or DoorDash orders, which nudges them to order directly from Crumbl.
3. Using Exhibit 1, calculate the percent change in average sales per location from 2022 to 2023. Then explain how one personal, psychological, sociological, or situational factor could help explain why customers bought less, using evidence from the case.Topic 2.2 · LO 2.2.A
Percent change = (new − old) ÷ old = ($1.16 million − $1.84 million) ÷ $1.84 million = −$0.68 million ÷ $1.84 million ≈ −0.37, a decrease of about 37%. A psychological factor can help explain the drop: buying decisions are shaped by emotions and perceptions, and a weekly flavor reveal that felt exciting at first can start to feel routine once customers have seen it many times, so the urge to buy right away weakens. The number of stores matters too: Crumbl went from more than 600 stores in January 2023 to more than 950 within about six years of opening, so the same customers were spread across more locations, which lowers average sales per store. Later pressures added to the problem: in 2026, an economist said that when families pay more for gas and groceries, a situational factor, they sometimes cut out luxuries such as a $14.99 box of cookies.

Discussion Questions

Talk these through with a partner or your class. There's more than one good answer, so back yours up with evidence from the case.

  1. Is Crumbl’s weekly rotating menu an honest use of scarcity, or could it become manipulative? Where would you draw the line?
  2. Crumbl Rewards members earn more Crumbs per dollar as they move from Bronze to Pink. Which principle of influence does this use, and would it change how often you buy?
  3. Why might a flavor reveal that felt exciting in 2021 feel less exciting in 2026? What does that suggest about how buying decisions change over time?
  4. Which factor do you think did the most to drive Crumbl’s early growth? Defend your choice with evidence: (a) the weekly rotating menu (scarcity), (b) lines and millions of social media followers (consensus, or social proof), (c) celebrity collaborations (liking), or (d) the app and rewards program (technology).
  5. If you owned a Crumbl franchise in 2026, what sales tactic would you test to bring customers back, and how would you measure whether it worked?

Application Activity

Choose a product sold through limited-time drops or rotating flavors (for example, seasonal drinks, sneaker releases, or limited-edition snacks). Identify at least two of Cialdini’s principles of influence the seller uses, decide whether each use is honest, and explain how you would expect customers’ purchasing patterns to change after the first year. Then propose one sales tactic for your Business Canvas product that uses one of these principles ethically.

Key Takeaways

  • Scarcity can create urgency when it is real and new. Crumbl’s disappearing flavors gave customers a reason to buy this week, but repeating the same surprise every week weakened its power as the novelty faded.
  • Technology reshaped purchasing patterns. A weekly online reveal, millions of social media followers, app ordering for pickup and delivery, and an in-app rewards program changed when, how, and how often customers bought.
  • Sales tactics are only one part of consumer behavior. Price, economic pressure on household budgets, and the number of nearby stores also influenced buying decisions, and data such as average sales per location reveal when those decisions start to shift.

Use it in your Business Canvas Project

Use Crumbl as a model when you develop the sales tactic for your Business Canvas product: choose one principle of influence (such as a limited first batch or a rewards punch card), make sure it is truthful, and plan how you will measure whether it still works after the excitement of launch wears off.

For Teachers

Opening activity: Ask students: Have you ever bought something mainly because it was available for a limited time, such as a seasonal drink, a sneaker drop, or a limited menu item? Have a few students explain what made them buy and whether they would buy it again if it were always available. Tell them the case features a bakery chain built around a menu that changes every week.

Tip: “Print case” prints the case and all questions with the sample answers hidden, so it works as a student handout.

Sources

  1. Inside the craze at fast-growing franchise Crumbl Cookies, Franchise Times (Laura Michaels), 2021-10-27
  2. Our Story, Crumbl (company website), 2026-10-16
  3. Crumbl Cookies franchises fined for child labor violations, Axios Salt Lake City, 2023-01-04
  4. Crumbl is ditching ‘cookies’ from its logo, Restaurant Business, 2023
  5. The Cracks in Crumbl’s Cookie Empire Are Showing, Bloomberg Businessweek, 2025-12-12
  6. Crumbl Rewards, Crumbl (company website), 2026-10-16
  7. Crumbl home page and weekly menu (week of October 12–18, 2026), Crumbl (company website), 2026-10-16
  8. Crumbl Cookies closes dozens of stores amid declining sales, report finds, KUTV (Salt Lake City), 2026-10-08
  9. Crumbl closures offer glimpse into pressure on fast-casual, discretionary spending, KUTV (Liv Kelleher), 2026-10-08
  10. Privacy Policy (lists Crumbl Enterprises LLC, Lindon, Utah), Crumbl (company website), 2026-07-27

This case was written for educational use from the public sources listed above. Crumbl did not review it and is not affiliated with this site; company names are trademarks of their owners. This resource is independent and not affiliated with or endorsed by College Board.