AP Business Case Study · Unit 4, Task 4

Southwest Airlines: When a Low-Cost Legend Changed the Rules

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Unit 4 · Applying Strategic Analysis Frameworks

A real-company case study for Unit 4, Task 4 of AP Business with Personal Finance, written in the same format as the course's business cases. Read the case, answer each question on your own, then open the sample answers to check your thinking. Facts are current as of October 2026, and every source is listed at the bottom.

The Case

Unit & taskUnit 4, Task 4: Applying Strategic Analysis Frameworks
Topic4.4
Key peopleBob Jordan (President and CEO of Southwest Airlines); Elliott Investment Management (Activist investor that bought a $1.9 billion stake in 2024 and pushed for change)
Case years1971–2026 · Evaluation case
Key questionWhat do Porter’s Five Forces and a SWOT analysis reveal about why Southwest Airlines gave up two of its signature policies, open seating and free checked bags?
Business Canvas componentsMarket, Customer, Operations
Snapshot
  • Business: Southwest Airlines Co., a major U.S. passenger airline
  • Industry: Scheduled passenger air travel
  • First flights: June 18, 1971 (Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio)
  • Headquarters: Dallas, Texas
  • Key people: Bob Jordan, President and CEO
  • Ownership/Status: Public company (NYSE: LUV); 803 Boeing 737s and about 72,800 full-time-equivalent employees at the end of 2025

A Different Kind of Airline

On June 18, 1971, Southwest Airlines began flying three Boeing 737 jets between Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. Over the next five decades it became one of the largest airlines in the United States by doing things its own way. Instead of routing passengers through a few giant hubs, it flew mostly point-to-point trips between cities. It flew only one type of plane, the Boeing 737. It had no premium cabin and no assigned seats—passengers took any open seat when they boarded—and it charged no fees for checked bags or for changing a reservation. Southwest’s annual report points to its low-cost strategy and its well-known hospitality as reasons travelers choose it. The formula worked: Southwest earned a profit for 47 years in a row, until the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020.

A Tough Industry

Southwest’s annual report describes airline competition as intense and unpredictable and says price is a major factor in which airline customers choose. Most domestic flying is handled by Southwest and three other giants: American, Delta, and United. Travelers can compare fares on search sites such as Google Flights and Kayak, which list Southwest’s flights. In 2025, Southwest began selling tickets through Expedia and Priceline, and the share of its passenger revenue booked directly on its own website and app slipped from 81% to 78%. Flying isn’t the only choice, either: the annual report lists driving and videoconferencing as competition.

Launching an airline takes huge sums for aircraft, fuel, technology, and employees, so new U.S. carriers are rare. When two start-ups, Avelo and Breeze, prepared to launch in 2021, the Associated Press noted that the last new U.S. airline before them, Virgin America, had begun flying in 2007.

Airlines also depend on a few powerful suppliers. Boeing is the only company that builds Southwest’s planes, and Boeing’s delivery delays were part of the reason Southwest changed its delivery schedule in 2025. As of early 2026, one model Southwest had ordered, the 737-7, still had not been certified by the Federal Aviation Administration. About 84% of Southwest’s employees are represented by labor unions, and salaries, wages, and benefits made up about 47% of its operating expenses in 2025. Fuel was the second-largest cost (Exhibit 1).

The Holiday Meltdown

Southwest’s worst stumble came during the 2022 Christmas travel season. As winter storms hit, almost 17,000 of its flights were canceled or significantly delayed, stranding more than 2 million passengers. Southwest blamed the weather, which scrambled schedules and left crews and planes out of position. Critics, including the investor described below, blamed outdated software and processes. The airline paid $600 million in refunds and reimbursements to passengers and reported a $220 million loss for that quarter. In December 2023, the U.S. Department of Transportation ordered Southwest to pay a $140 million civil penalty—30 times larger than any earlier department penalty for consumer protection violations.

Pressure to Change

By 2024, Southwest was struggling. It lost $231 million in the first quarter of that year, and the Associated Press reported that rivals were winning over upscale travelers while Southwest had no premium cabin to offer them. Its stock had fallen more than 50% in three years. In June 2024, Elliott Investment Management, an activist investment firm, revealed a $1.9 billion stake in the company. Elliott argued that Southwest had failed to evolve and called for replacing CEO Bob Jordan and executive chairman Gary Kelly, a former CEO.

Southwest began changing course. In July 2024, it announced it would end open seating. Its research found that 80% of its customers and 86% of potential customers preferred an assigned seat, and that customers who switched to other airlines named open seating as the top reason. At an investor day that September, Southwest unveiled a plan called “Southwest. Even Better.” that targeted about $4 billion in additional earnings before interest and taxes by 2027. At the time, it planned to keep bags free: it estimated that bag fees could bring in at most $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year but would cost it about $1.8 billion a year in lost business. In October 2024, Southwest reached a cooperation agreement with Elliott: six new independent directors joined the board, Kelly retired early, and Jordan remained CEO.

The changes came quickly. In February 2025, Southwest eliminated about 1,750 corporate jobs. It added red-eye flights. Then it reversed itself on bags: for most fares booked on or after May 28, 2025, checked bags were no longer free. A new basic fare replaced its cheapest “Wanna Get Away” fare, a vacation-package business called Getaways by Southwest launched, and the airline formed partnerships with international airlines. On January 27, 2026, assigned seating and extra-legroom seats began. To make room for the extra legroom, Southwest is also removing six seats from each of its Boeing 737-700s, which raises its cost for each seat it flies.

Where Things Stand

Then came a shock no airline controls. In 2026, after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, jet fuel prices soared; Reuters reported that they more than doubled after the war began. In the second quarter of 2026, Southwest’s fuel expense was $889 million higher than a year earlier. Its new products helped—average fares rose nearly 21%, revenue reached a quarterly record of $8.4 billion, and net income was $233 million—but in July 2026 Southwest lowered its profit forecast for the year and trimmed its planned growth in flying for 2026 to about 1.5%, down from 2%. Rival Spirit Airlines, an ultra-low-cost carrier going through its second bankruptcy restructuring since November 2024, stopped flying on May 2, 2026, after what its attorney described as a surge in jet fuel costs; Southwest was among the airlines that offered $200 one-way fares to stranded Spirit customers. Southwest still has bragging rights: J.D. Power ranked it No. 1 in customer satisfaction among economy passengers in 2026, and its Rapid Rewards loyalty program grew to nearly 100 million members. As of October 2026, the open question is whether Southwest’s new extras can earn enough to cover higher costs without losing the customers who loved the old Southwest.

Exhibit 1: Southwest’s key inputs by the numbers
MeasureValuePeriod
Salaries, wages, and benefits (share of operating expenses)About 46.9%2025
Fuel and oil (share of operating expenses)19.0%2025
Average fuel cost per gallon$2.412025
Average fuel cost per gallon$3.92Second quarter of 2026
Southwest’s estimated fuel cost per gallon$3.70–$3.75Third quarter of 2026 (estimate made in July 2026)
Employees represented by labor unionsAbout 84%End of 2025
Aircraft in fleet (all Boeing 737s)803End of 2025

Sources: Southwest Airlines 2025 Form 10-K; Southwest Airlines second-quarter 2026 earnings release (July 22, 2026).

Reading Questions

These are the same for every case. They check that you caught the basics before you analyze.

1. Which business does this case feature, and what product or service does it provide?
The case features Southwest Airlines, a major U.S. passenger airline based in Dallas. It provides scheduled air travel, mostly on point-to-point routes, using a fleet made up entirely of Boeing 737s (803 planes at the end of 2025). Since 2025 it has also sold extras that it once included or didn’t offer, such as checked bags, assigned and extra-legroom seats, and vacation packages through Getaways by Southwest, and it runs the Rapid Rewards loyalty program.
2. Who are the key people named in the case, and what roles do they play? Which other stakeholders — individuals or groups — have an interest in the business?
Bob Jordan is Southwest’s President and CEO; he led the shift to assigned seating and bag fees and remained CEO after Elliott called for his replacement. Gary Kelly, a former CEO, was executive chairman until he retired early from the board under the October 2024 agreement with Elliott. Elliott Investment Management is the activist investor that bought a $1.9 billion stake and pushed for change. Other stakeholders include passengers (loyal customers who liked free bags and travelers who wanted assigned seats), employees (about 84% represented by unions, plus the roughly 1,750 corporate workers whose jobs were cut), shareholders, suppliers such as Boeing and fuel sellers, the U.S. Department of Transportation, partner airlines, travel websites such as Expedia and Priceline, and rival airlines such as American, Delta, United, and Spirit.
3. Identify an opportunity and/or a challenge the business faces in this case.
An opportunity is customer demand for choice: Southwest’s research found that 80% of its customers and 86% of potential customers preferred an assigned seat, so selling assigned and extra-legroom seats could earn more per flight (average fares rose nearly 21% in the second quarter of 2026). A challenge is rising fuel costs: Southwest paid $3.92 per gallon in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $2.41 in 2025, and its fuel expense rose $889 million from a year earlier, which led it to lower its 2026 profit forecast.

Practice Questions

These apply the Unit 4 concepts from Task 4 to the case, in the style of AP free-response prompts.

1. Describe the bargaining power of suppliers in the U.S. airline industry. Support your answer with two examples of Southwest’s suppliers from the case.Topic 4.4 · LO 4.4.A, LO 4.4.B
The bargaining power of suppliers is the ability of suppliers to raise prices, reduce quality, or limit supply. For Southwest, supplier power is high. Boeing is the only company that builds Southwest’s planes, so when Boeing delayed deliveries and the 737-7 remained uncertified, Southwest changed its delivery schedule and had no easy way to switch to another plane maker. Fuel is a second example: airlines cannot fly without jet fuel and must pay the market price for it. Fuel and oil were 19.0% of Southwest’s operating expenses in 2025, and when jet fuel prices jumped in 2026, Southwest’s fuel expense rose $889 million in one quarter. Labor unions, which represent about 84% of Southwest’s employees, also bargain over pay and benefits that made up about 47% of its operating expenses in 2025. Because these suppliers are hard to replace, they can take a large share of what airlines earn.
2. Explain how the bargaining power of buyers in the airline industry helped push Southwest to replace open seating with assigned seats. Use evidence from the case.Topic 4.4 · LO 4.4.B
The bargaining power of buyers is customers’ ability to influence prices and terms. Air travelers have strong buyer power because they can compare fares on sites such as Google Flights, Kayak, Expedia, and Priceline, and switching airlines costs them almost nothing (low switching costs). Southwest’s own research showed that 80% of its customers and 86% of potential customers preferred an assigned seat, and that customers who left for other airlines named open seating as the top reason. Because unhappy customers could easily book with American, Delta, or United, keeping open seating meant losing revenue to rivals. That pressure led Southwest to announce assigned seating in July 2024 and launch it on January 27, 2026, along with extra-legroom seats that customers can pay more for.
3. Using Exhibit 1, calculate the percent change in Southwest’s average fuel cost per gallon from 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. Then explain whether rising fuel costs belong in the weakness or the threat quadrant of a SWOT analysis, and how they affect Southwest’s profitability.Topic 4.4 · LO 4.4.C, LO 4.4.D
Percent change = (new − old) ÷ old = ($3.92 − $2.41) ÷ $2.41 = $1.51 ÷ $2.41 ≈ 0.627, an increase of about 62.7%. Rising fuel costs belong in the threat quadrant because they are an external factor that Southwest does not control: jet fuel prices more than doubled after the 2026 war with Iran began, and input costs are set by suppliers and market conditions. A weakness would be an internal problem Southwest can fix, such as the outdated software and processes critics blamed for the 2022 meltdown. Because fuel was already 19.0% of operating expenses, the price jump raised Southwest’s fuel expense by $889 million in the second quarter of 2026. As a result, even with record quarterly revenue of $8.4 billion, net income was only $233 million, and Southwest lowered its 2026 profit forecast.

Discussion Questions

Talk these through with a partner or your class. There's more than one good answer, so back yours up with evidence from the case.

  1. Rate each of Porter’s Five Forces as low, moderate, or high for the U.S. airline industry in 2026. Which force do you think poses the biggest threat to Southwest’s profits, and why?
  2. In September 2024, Southwest told investors that bag fees would cost it more in lost business than the fees would bring in. Within a year, it began charging for bags anyway. What might explain the change, and do you agree with the decision?
  3. Is flying only Boeing 737s a strength, a weakness, or both? Use SWOT language and evidence from the case to explain.
  4. Spirit Airlines stopped flying in May 2026. How might its exit change competitive rivalry and the threat of new entrants in the U.S. airline industry? Is it an opportunity for Southwest?
  5. Which factor do you think matters most for Southwest’s future success? Support your choice with evidence from the case. a. Its low-cost, point-to-point model b. Its customer satisfaction and Rapid Rewards loyalty program c. New products such as assigned and extra-legroom seats d. Its ability to manage supplier costs such as fuel and labor

Application Activity

Choose a business you use often, such as a gym, a coffee shop, or a streaming service. Rate each of Porter’s Five Forces as low, moderate, or high for its industry, giving one sentence of evidence for each. Then list one strength, one weakness, one opportunity, and one threat for that business, and identify the single force or threat you would tell the owner to watch most closely.

Key Takeaways

  • Porter’s Five Forces helps explain why airlines struggle to earn large profits: rivalry among a few big carriers is intense, suppliers such as Boeing, fuel sellers, and labor unions are powerful, and buyers can compare fares and switch airlines easily. Even Southwest, profitable for 47 straight years, felt these forces squeeze its results.
  • SWOT analysis separates what a business controls from what it doesn’t. The outdated systems blamed for the 2022 meltdown were an internal weakness Southwest could fix, while the 2026 jump in fuel prices was an external threat it could only respond to—for example, by earning more per seat and slowing growth.
  • A strength can lose its value when the market changes. Open seating and free bags once set Southwest apart, but when customers and investors wanted more choice and more revenue, Southwest used other strengths—its brand, high customer satisfaction, and large loyalty program—to sell new products.

Use it in your Business Canvas Project

Rate the five forces for your Canvas business’s market, then ask whether any current strength—like Southwest’s free bags—could lose its value if customer preferences or costs change. Remember that rising input costs belong in your threats quadrant, not your weaknesses.

For Teachers

Opening activity: Poll the class: when your family books a flight, what matters most—price, choosing your seat, free bags, or the schedule? Record the results. Then briefly introduce Porter’s Five Forces (rivalry, new entrants, substitutes, buyer power, supplier power) and the four SWOT quadrants, and tell students they will use both to analyze an airline that changed its most famous policies.

Tip: “Print case” prints the case and all questions with the sample answers hidden, so it works as a student handout.

Sources

  1. Southwest Airlines Co. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, Southwest Airlines Co. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2026-02
  2. Southwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; Earnings Power on Full Display (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Southwest Airlines Co. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2026-07-22
  3. Southwest Airline lowers 2026 profit floor as fuel costs blunt pricing gains, Reuters (via KFGO), 2026-07-22
  4. An investment firm has taken a $1.9 billion stake in Southwest Airlines and wants to oust the CEO, Associated Press (via News4JAX), 2024-06-10
  5. Southwest Airlines Announces Appointment of Six New Independent Directors (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Southwest Airlines Co. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2024-10-24
  6. “Southwest. Even Better.” Investor Day presentation (Form DEFA14A), Southwest Airlines Co. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2024-09-26
  7. “Transformational change”: Southwest Airlines is doing away with open seating, Axios, 2024-07-25
  8. Southwest fined $140 million over 2022 holiday flight disruptions, NBC News, 2023-12-18
  9. Spirit Airlines has stopped flying. Here’s what happens next, Associated Press (via News4JAX), 2026-05-05
  10. 2 new airlines await Americans looking to fly somewhere, Associated Press (via News4JAX), 2021-04-08

This case was written for educational use from the public sources listed above. Southwest Airlines did not review it and is not affiliated with this site; company names are trademarks of their owners. This resource is independent and not affiliated with or endorsed by College Board.